RIBEIRO, CAROLINA HABIB; DA CUNHA, MARCELO PEREIRA. he economic and environmental impacts of Brazilian National Biofuel Polic. BIOFUELS BIOPRODUCTS & BIOREFINING-BIOFPR, v. 16, n. 2, DEC 2021. (17/08501-0)
Marcelo Pereira da Cunha
Graduado em Engenharia Mecânica pela Escola Politécnica da Universidade de São Paulo (1993), Mestre em Matemática Aplicada pela Universidade Estadual de Campinas (2005), Doutor em Planejamento de Sistemas Energéticos pela Universidade Estadual de Campinas (2011) e livre docente em Economia Agrícola e do Meio Ambiente pela UNICAMP (2021). Professor Associado do Instituto de Economia da UNICAMP, tendo ingressado nesta universidade em 2012. Professor visitante no Centre of Policy Studies (CoPS) da Victoria University (Melbourne, Austrália) em 2023. Foi assessor da Diretoria Executiva de Planejamento Integrado (DEPI) da Unicamp de 2018 a 2021 e assessor docente da reitoria na mesma universidade de 2021 a 2022. Coordenou a Componente de Avaliação de Sustentabilidade do projeto do Hub Internacional para o Desenvolvimento Sustentável (HIDS) de 2019 a 2022. Atua nas áreas de Economia Matemática e Economia das Empresas. Tem experiência na construção de modelos de insumo-produto e de equilíbrio geral para avaliação de impactos socioeconômicos e ambientais devido à inserção de um novo setor produtivo, às mudanças tecnológicas e estruturais na economia. Atua principalmente no estudo de setores energéticos.
He economic and environmental impacts of Brazilian National Biofuel Polic
The Brazilian National Policy on Biofuels (Renovabio) sets targets to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (GGE) in the transportation mix. Through the policy, a financial asset known as CBIO (a Decarbonization Credit) was created. CBIOs represent the equivalent CO2 emissions prevented when substituting fossil fuels for renewable fuels and are traded on the stock market, which sets the price. Fossil fuel distributors are obliged to buy these assets and biofuel producers can issue the CBIOs on the stock market. A dynamic computable general equilibrium model was applied to estimate the CBIO prices and the annual economic and environmental impacts of RenovaBio from 2021 to 2029. The impacts on fuel and energy consumption, fuel prices, inflation, gross domestic product (GDP) and agricultural productivity considering ethanol, gasoline, biodiesel and diesel were calculated. To achieve the required decarbonization level by 2029, ethanol production must increase by 87.7%, led by a drop in its price relative to gasoline. The total fuel energy consumed would drop by 7.10% and inflation would increase by 0.35 percentage points, while GDP would increase by only 0.08% in the scenario of the last year, when the CBIO price would reach R\$223.35 (similar to US\$74.45). RenovaBio can be an effective policy to promote carbon intensity reduction and works as a hedge against unfavorable scenarios for biofuel production. Therefore, the policy can help Brazil reach its intended nationally determined contribution by boosting the use of biofuels in the country's transportation sector. (C) 2021 Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley \& Sons, Ltd (AU)